Since the year 2000, Florida and Ohio have come to the forefront of attention during the tighter presidential election cycles. Both of these states have sizable populations; therefore, the electoral delegates gained by winning these states have a tremendous impact on shaping the race results. Twenty years ago, Florida was a hotspot as the electoral results went all the way to the Supreme Court before declaring a final winner.
Fortunately, the results have not been as close in subsequent years. However, these states remain indicative of the outcome serving as a barometer as Florida has aligned with the election winner on 11 of the last 12 elections. Meanwhile, Ohio has voted for the presidential winner in each of the previous 12 elections.
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Today I’m going to outline what I see as the path of least resistance for Joseph Biden to win the election, even without carrying Ohio and Florida. In the process, I will introduce you to some useful websites.
First, I would like to give a disclaimer. The intention of this article is not to be partisan or reflect favor for one candidate or another. Instead, as traders, we must be prepared for either outcome of the election, even when it means setting aside personal bias. Last week I outlined an excellent set of guidelines that traders can use to prepare for the election.
Useful Resources
The first site I will introduce you to is 270towin.com, which offers an interactive map to work out various electoral scenarios. Shown below are the actual results from 2016.
The second website I will pull data from is RealClearPolitics.com, a bipartisan site that collects all kinds of polling data from virtually every source. From the results, they create an average of all data. Below is an example of their averages polling data based on some of the swing states in play for 2020.
There are three key states that I want to concentrate on to present my scenario, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states went for Trump in 2016; however, Pennsylvania and Michigan had previously voted for Democratic candidates in six consecutive elections. Meanwhile, Democrats had carried Wisconsin for seven straight elections.
Part of the explanation of why these states broke with their history was because of the lack of appeal Hillary Clinton gave to the Democratic base in these states. According to the polling average shown above from RealClearPolitics, Biden is favored to retake each of these states for the Democratic Party.
Shown on the map below are what the results will look like if every state outcome is the same, except for a flip by these three key states:
As you can see, if Biden does flip these three states alone, while winning every other race that Clinton won in ‘16 would shift the results of the election, even without winning Florida and Ohio. Even should he flip two of those states, he might need just to flip Iowa, Arizona, or North Carolina to win, each of which seems to be in play this year for Democrats.
Now, before I continue, I should slow down the victory party for Biden just a bit. In my article last week, I noted how polling was very off in 2016. While polls are also showing that Biden has a more substantial presence in some swing states than ‘16, it also indicates there is even more commitment to Trump.
It comes down to this, do polls have any better indication in ‘20 than they did in ‘16? We should have a better idea when states on the east coast like Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and New Hampshire close. Meanwhile, states like Florida will take longer to cipher the results. I believe that regardless of your political party, it would be beneficial if the polling providers have updated their methodology quite a bit to adapt to a more modern approach.
Conclusion
There will be many dynamics to observe, leading up to and during election night. Furthermore, there are several electoral paths to victory for each candidate, and it is impossible to project the outcome of this election. However, this three-state plan that I have outlined might be considered the path of least resistance for Democrats to retake the White House.
In the comments below, tell me what you think? Will Democrats retake any states? Will Trump turn more states into swing states?
Trade Well!