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S&P Daily Pre-Market Prep 5/9/17

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2017-05-08_14-49-48.png

 2017-05-09_14-18-14.png

We are still 'tickling the top of the range'. Still waiting for a reaction in the market big enough for people to jump on board.

Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.

 Yesterday we saw volume tail off again with less than 1 million contracts traded. Traders are there but they just aren't engaging at this point. We need some sort of event - either a price move or news event to give the market a nudge.

2017-05-09_14-18-31.png

Here we have last weeks profile and Mondays profile, we need to escape Mondays range today or the market will be inclined to trade around it for the rest of the week. That's not necessarily a bad thing, so as we go into today we can look for shorts above 97 and longs below 93. If we break down, we can look for the market to hold the top of last weeks range.

2017-05-09_14-19-55.png
 
Looking at the daily profiles, it does appear that we may have rolled over from the all time high. There's just not been enough volume traded to confirm this yet. If people were speculating that the top had held, we'd be seeing decent participation to the downside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Presume any pushes up are fake unless accompanied with significant volume
- downside moves could represent completion of the range above, be wary until we get past 87.25
- watch for a range around 93-97, fade the extremes but give room for the range to expand
- Early trades off the open would be good as we may lose volatility as the day progresses

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2399.25
Value - 2381.25-> 2387.25
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2389.75 -> 2397.75 / 2403.75
Value - 2392 -> 2395
Globex 2393 -> 2396.25

Settlement – 2395

Today - 2400, 2387.25, 2393, 2397

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400
 

Jigsaw-trading.png 

 
Posted by Peter Davies on May 09, 2017
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