We managed to make a little progression upside but it's not a clear break yet, so whilst overall bias is still to a test of 2100, I am still wary of this particular push up being a headfake.
The weekly profile has a single print at 2063, so if we do move down, I'll be watching for a hold there.
Days are still pretty tight and as such, I'm looking to get in on one of the initial swings off the open. Yesterdays open didn't give us much in that respect but I'll still try today again.
Scenarios
- Off the open (or even before the open), I'd like to see a test of the value area or yesterdays day session low. So if we open above yesterdays high, I'll look for a test of VAH. If we open in value, I'll look for a test of VAL. If we can then move up, I think we could then gather the participation necessary for a break upside.
- If we grind up and don't test downside, I expect it to be less clear and take a little longer for people to jump on and more likely to chop until we can really get some distance past yesterdays high
- Same for downside, if we initiate down off a test of overnight high/yesterdays high, I expect it to be clearer, if not - I think it will be choppy.
So really today, I'm trying to figure out what could cause people to jump on a move and if I don't see that I'm expecting chop and will let the range form before trying anything.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2077
Value - 2032.50 -> 2061
S1 - 2022.50, R1 - 2063
Daily Numbers
Range 2054 / 2063.75 -> 2077
Value 2067.25 -> 2073.25
Globex 2068.50 -> 2076.50
Settlement - 2076
Today only - 202, 2063
Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75
